Apr 17 – 21, 2023
Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics
America/Toronto timezone

Bounding counterfactual distributions in discrete structural causal models

Apr 19, 2023, 3:30 PM
PI/4-405 - Bob Room (Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics)

PI/4-405 - Bob Room

Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics



Jin Tian (Iowa State University)


We investigate the problem of bounding counterfactual queries from an arbitrary collection of observational and experimental distributions and qualitative knowledge about the underlying data-generating model represented in the form of a causal diagram. We show that all counterfactual distributions in an arbitrary structural causal model (SCM) with finite discrete endogenous variables could be generated by a family of SCMs with the same causal diagram where unobserved (exogenous) variables are discrete with a finite domain. Utilizing this family of SCMs, we translate the problem of bounding counterfactuals into that of polynomial programming whose solution provides optimal bounds for the counterfactual query.

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